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This is the last in the series of notes on GMMA applications. Bubble trading is a speculative activity. It calls for good trading skills and excellent trading discipline. The objective is to ride the momentum driven bubble for as long as possible. Exits are fine tuned using a variety of volatility based indicators and techniques. The end of day chart is used to set the general scene for the exit, but the actual exit is usually managed using intraday trading tools. Many traders avoid speculative bubble trading because it is so demanding. However, there are times when we enter a trade which shows a steady trend, only to find that a bubble develops. This poses several dangers and some temptations.

First the dangers. Bubbles inevitably burst. When they collapse prices often fall from a great height. In some cases this fall is fast enough and hard enough to seriously weaken the underlying trend. Bubble collapses can wipe out not only bubble profits, but also profits accumulated over many weeks or months. Recognizing these bubbles is a useful skill to develop because we can limit the damage from a bubble collapse.

If we have not set out to trade a bubble, then we may be tempted to take profits from the temporary bubble as it develops. This is a sound strategy, and can be used to protect profits or take opportunity profits, while still intending to remain with the underlying trend.

Many investors simply ignore the bubble, letting it collapse back to the trend. This may mean ignoring exit signals generated by other indicators. The bubble trade in this situation can attack our trading discipline. Traders need to be clear on when it is appropriate to ignore volatility based stop loss indicators in this situation.
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The Guppy Multiple Moving Average (GMMA) indicator was first mentioned in Trading Tactics in 1997. Since then the use and application of the indicator has been refined. In response to requests from readers, this series of notes brings together these modifications and improvements.

Aggressive traders attempt to identify a change in the downtrend – an up trend breakout – as soon as it happens, or even before it happens. This is aggressive trading because it carries a higher level of failure. Unless the trader has excellent trading discipline there is the danger of holding onto a stock as it continues to go down in the hope that it will eventually rebound.

A more common, and in some ways, safer approach, is to trade the trend breakout in the days or weeks after it has happened. This does reduce profits when compared with an earlier entry, but this reduction is counterbalanced by the increased probability that the trend break will develop into a sustainable new trend. Few traders are content with joining these trends at any price point. Most try to get the best entry possible, based on a pullback in price. If we understand the nature of the trend and the breakout using the techniques discussed last week, then we can take advantage of these points of price weakness because we are confident in our analysis of the developing trend.

The GMMA is applied in real time to assess the best entry opportunities after the breakout is confirmed. It gives us an answer to the question: Is this price collapse part of a general new trend collapse, or an entry opportunity? This is a significant question because young trends are weak. There is a higher probability of trend collapse.

Breakouts come in two important formats. The most common is the “V” shaped breakout where a clear downtrend develops into a clear up trend. This is clear retrospectively, although at the time the process can be frightening and many traders delay the entry because they are worried about a trend collapse.
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